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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-22 1:34 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2007 Meeting
Section: Atomic and Molecular Physics; Astrophysics
Title:
Solar activity prognosis for the cycle #24-invited lecture
Authors:
M. Rusu
Affiliation:
University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, P.O.BOX MG-11, Bucharest, Romania
E-mail
mvrusu@yahoo.com
Keywords:
sun activity, nonlinear models, asymmetry,
Abstract:
We present the prognosis of the Wolf sunspot numbers, for the cycle #24 (2006 – 2017) based on the assumption that each cycle are decomposable in two Gaussian curves. This assumption is based on the phenomenological model described earlier (Rusu 2007). It is based on the interpretation of the asymmetric trend of the Wolf number time series based from the first cycle. . The non-linear RLC van der Pol model suggested by Polygiannakis et al. (1996) was extended, and preliminary results are presented. It is predicted a smaller maxima and a well resolved double pick activity.
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