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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-25 0:06 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2004 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
A winter case study based on the forecast of two limited area models
Authors:
Iulia Ibanescu, Steluta Alexandru
Affiliation:
National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest
E-mail
Keywords:
NWP, limited area models, synoptic situation
Abstract:
A numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is a computer model developed to simulate the behaviour of the atmosphere. NWP is based on the mathematical expressions of physical principles, such as mass and energy conservation, balance equations of the momentum. Recent years showed the great importance of the NWP models. Nowadays most of the weather forecasting services are using different numerical model, as global or limited area models (LAM), to predict or simulate the atmospheric circulation.
The aim of the experiments was to perform a comparison between the forecasts of two limited area models, namely MM5 and ALADIN/Romania, for a special synoptic situation. Between the 22nd – 24th of January 2004, a snowstorm affected especially the north-eastern part of Romania. The quantity of precipitation was not so significant, but violent squall has been signalled. Also the region of the Black Sea has been influenced by this snowstorm, the height of the waves reaching considerable values.
As far as the results are concerned we could conclude that the limited area models succeeded to predict in reasonable limits the evolution of the snowstorm. The forecasts of some meteorological fields were close to reality, but there were also some inconsistencies for others.
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