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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-22 2:07 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2006 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Medium-term prediction of Vrancea earthquakes
Authors:
Rogozea Maria(1), Bogdan Grecu(1), Mihaela Popa(1) ,Mircea Radulian(1)
Affiliation:
National Institute for Earth Physics
E-mail
mrogozea@infp.ro
Keywords:
prediction of Vrancea earthquakes
Abstract:
Possible predictive properties of Vrancea seismicity are investigated on the basis of a set of Vrancea intermediate-depth events recorded by the seismic network of National Institute for Earth Physics for the period 1995-2004.
Two alternative catalogs are considered for the analyzed time interval: ROMPLUS catalog [Oncescu et al. 1999 updated] which includes 1289 of events with magnitude between 2.2 and 5.3 and MICAT catalog [Trifu and Radulian, 1994] including 1609 events with magnitude between 1.7 and 6.2. These catalogs are obtained by different methods.
A complex analysis of the Vrancea seismicity characteristics is performed. We studied the variation of the seismic activity in space and time, frequency-magnitude distribution, fractal dimension, deformation accumulation curve (Benioff curve), on different time and space windows and tested any possible earthquake precursor.
We compare the two catalogs and determine calibration relations among the specific parameters.
We studied also the medium-term earthquake prediction using CN algorithm [Keilis-Brorok and Rotwain, 1999]. Such algorithm allows for a diagnosis of the Times of Increased Probability for the occurrences, inside a given region and time window, of the earthquakes with magnitude greater than a fixed threshold M0. The algorithm was applied to Vrancea earthquakes (M0=6.4) indicating at present an alarm for this seismic area.
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