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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-22 1:47 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2015 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Evaluation of WRF numerical weather forecasts - sensitivity to initial and lateral boundary conditions
Authors:
Amalia IRIZA (1,2), Sabina STEFAN (1), Rodica Claudia DUMITRACHE (2)
Affiliation:
1) University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, P.O.BOX MG-11, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania
2) National Meteorological Administration, Sos. Bucuresti Ploiesti nr. 97, Bucharest, 013686, Romania
E-mail
amalia.iriza@gmail.com
Keywords:
numerical modelling, forecast verification
Abstract:
Initial and lateral boundary conditions can impose strong limitations on the numerical weather forecast from limited area models. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model; Skamarock et al., 2008) to initial and lateral boundary conditions. For this purpose, the WRF model was run for January 2103 and July 2013 at 3 km horizontal resolution, using topography data at 3 seconds horizontal resolution and two sets of initial and lateral boundary conditions: from the numerical output of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) global model and from the limited area COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling; Schaettler et al., 2013) model. The numerical forecasts of the WRF model in the two configurations were evaluated using daily and monthly statistical scores (mean error and root mean squared error) as well as scatter plots (Jolliffe and Stephenson, 2012). The scores are based on forecast - observation differences and were computed taking into account all 163 synoptic stations in Romania. The WRF model run in both configurations displayed a tendency to overestimate the values of the analysed parameters in comparison to the observations, with approximately 2OC for 2 meter temperature and 1m/s for 10 meter wind speed. Results for 2 meter temperature and 10 meter wind speed showed a better performance of the WRF model when COSMO initial and lateral boundary conditions are used.
References:
JOLLIFFE, I.T., D.B. STEPHENSON, 2012: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition. Wiley and Sons Ltd, 274 pp.
SCHATTLER, U., G. DOMMS, C. SCHRAFF, 2013: A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model Part VII: Users Guide. Technical report.
SKAMAROCK , W., J. KLEMP, D. GILL, D. BARKER, W. WANG, J. POWERS, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. Technical report. NCAR.
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