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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-24 23:10 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2015 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
The characteristics of the variability for the thermal comfort indices in Romania and their connection with large scale climate anomalies
Authors:
Andreea DOBRINESCU (1,2), Aristita BUSUIOC (2), Marius-Victor BIRSAN(2), Alexandru DUMITRESCU (2) and Alina ORZAN (2)
Affiliation:
1University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, PO BOX MG-11, Bucharest, Romania
2National Meteorological Administration, Sos. Bucureşti-Ploieşti 97, Sect. 1, Bucharest 013686, Romania
E-mail
andreea.dobrinescu@meteoromania.ro
Keywords:
thermal stress indices, trends, shifts, nonparametric tests, empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), canonical correlation analysis (CCA).
Abstract:
Changes in the characteristics of the variability for two indices quantifying the winter (WCT, IR) and summer (THI) thermal stress at a high spatial resolution across Romania for the 1962-2010 period are analysed. The linear trends, shifts in the mean and main modes of variability are examined using the nonparametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Pettitt) and empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis. The physical mechanisms responsible for the identified characteristics of variability are examined through the canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The results show a significant upward trend for both indices over the entire country, except for some areas for WCT, with a significant upward shift around the year 1987 for winter and 1985 for summer. The IR trend is higher than the WCT trend. A strong increase in the frequency of extremely high THI is revealed, showing an increased risk for the human health during summers in Romania after 1985.The main large-scale mechanism responsible for the spatial and temporal behaviour of the two stress indices is given by the first CCA pair showing that their increasing trend is mainly explained by the increasing trend of the temperature at 850 hPa covering Romania simultaneously with an increasing trend in zonal circulation (WCT, IR) and an increasing trend in specific humidity at 700 hPa (THI). On a decadal / multidecadal time scale, the variations of the two indices are modulated by NAO (winter) and AMO (summer).
Acknowledgement:
This study was funded by the strategic grant POSDRU/159/1.5/S/137750, co-financed by the European Social Found within the Sectorial Operational Program Human Resources Development, 2007–2013 and the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) through the research project CLIMHYDEX "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania", code PNII-ID-2011-2-0073 (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro)
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