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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-23 18:24 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2016 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Impact of the data assimilation on ALARO precipitation forecast over Romania
Case study: 15th of May 2014
Authors:
Mirela PIETRISI
Affiliation:
1) University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics
2) National Meteorological Administration
E-mail
mirela.niculae@meteoromania.ro
Keywords:
data assimilation, verification
Abstract:
Previous results for an episode of cold weather in February 2012 obtained using the local conventional data assimilation were encouraging. It has been also proved the beneficial impact of tridimensional variational data assimilation leading to an increased performance of the model forecast in the 2m temperature field.
As well it is recognized that high-density observational data assimilation, especially radar or satellite data can lead to a substantial improvement in forecasting. Observation from the common LACE date base (OPLACE) such as conventional data (including local surface observation) and satellite data (ATOVS / AMSU-A - Advanced Microwave sounding Unit-A; ATOVS / AMSU-B - Microwave sounding Unit-B) from METEOSAT-NOAA19, SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) were used. Observations from polar and geostationary satellites provide essential information on the vertical structure of the atmosphere (temperature, water vapour content of the atmosphere).
Several experiments were carried out to analyse the impact of satellite data assimilation on the ALARO model precipitation forecast. The results for a case of heavy rainfall, 15 May 2014 are presented in the comparison with the operational forecast (without data assimilation). The model performance was evaluated by using the MODE method (Method for Object - based Diagnostic Evaluation) which provides diagnostics difficult to be obtained by using traditional verification scores, i.e. information about errors in precipitation location, size and intensity.
License: "Model Evaluation Tools (MET) was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) through a grant from the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). NCAR is sponsored by the United States National Science Foundation."
Acknowledgement:
The model specific data base used for data assimilation is a commonly exploit in operation by the members of RC-LACE (Regional Cooperation for Limited Area modelling in Central Europe) Consortium. The efforts of the Hungarian meteorological service for maintain it operationally is acknowledged. I would like to thank to my colleague Otilia Diaconu for her valuable help regarding the verfication method.
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