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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-22 2:11 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2018 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Exploring causality between climatic and macroeconomic oscillatory components
Authors:
Denis NICHITA (1), Mihai DIMA (1)
Affiliation:
1) University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Romania
E-mail
denisnichita@yahoo.es
Keywords:
Causality, Business cycles, Climatic modes, CCM
Abstract:
The dynamics of macroeconomic systems is marked by the business cycles, characterized by quasi-regular variations of interannual to interdecadal time scales. Since economy is embedded in the climate system, which is also marked by oscillatory variations with such characteristic time scales, the goal of our study is to investigate potential causal influences between these two types of quasi-regular variations. We used the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) method to test potential causal links between the interannual oscillatory components associated to two climate modes (El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the economic cycles manifested in the USA Gross Domestic Product and in the Standard&Poor500 economic time series across 1947-2016 and 1880-2015. The results indicate a causal relationship between the climatic and economic cycles. Two other complementary methods for inferring causality between time series, will be used to further validate these results.
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