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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-22 2:38 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2018 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Potential of anticipation of the extended forecast for extreme phenomena over Romania, based on the ECMWF model ensembles
Authors:
Mihaela Alexandra RAICU(1,2),Mihaela CAIAN(2),Florinela GEORGESCU(2),Sabina STEFAN (1)
Affiliation:
1)University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, P.O.Box MG-11, Magurele, 077125 Bucharest, Romania
2)National Meteorological Administration, Sos. Bucuresti- Ploiesti nr.97, sector 1, ZIP Code 013686, Bucharest, Romania
E-mail
mihaelaraicu29@yahoo.com
Keywords:
forecast, blizzard, ECMWF model ensembles
Abstract:
This paper is focused on the analysis of the prediction of the mean-term ensemble forecast over Romania. We use the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that includes an integrated high-resolution HRES forecast and a 51-member ensemble with forecasts of a lower resolution. All 52 members were mediated with an anticipation of up to 10 days for two predicted parameters, namely precipitation and the mean 2-m temperature for the blizzard case in Romania in 6th of January 2017. Programs running data files conforming to the ECMWF model were used to compute and analyze the difference between predicted and observed data at the date of the event for anticipation ranges from 1 day to 10 days. The study highlighted the skill of the medium-range forecast in case of extreme phenomena during the cold period of the year over Romania, and estimated the model errors against observation data for each individual anticipation. Based on the maximum or minimum error signal, the analysis of the synoptic context and of the mesoscale evolution regarding the initiation conditions of the concerned phenomenon was also performed. Outcomes of the study can be used as a conceptual anticipation model for better predictions issued by the ECMWF model in cases of severe phenomena, like the blizzard in Romania.
Acknowledgement:
The authors thank for the meteorological data from National Meteorological Administration, and ECMWF- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
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