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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-23 1:57 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2023 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Attribution of extreme daily temperature to anthropogenic and natural factors, based on observational data
Authors:
Dima Daniela, Sanda Voinea
*
Affiliation:
University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics
E-mail
danieladima2015@gmail.com
Keywords:
extreme temperature, attribution, anthropogenic and natural causes
Abstract:
In the context of global warming, the global impact of extreme phenomena is increasing, with implications on societal systems such as health, agriculture, economy, infrastructure. Attribution of extreme events is mainly performed using model simulations, but they require large computational resources and their accuracy depends on model limitations.
Complementary with model simulations, we performed a multivariate analysis of global daily extreme temperature fields extending over the period 1950-2021. Through the analysis we identified two separate components, whose properties make it possible to associate them with anthropogenic and natural factors. Whereas one is associated with a centennial trend related to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, of anthropogenic origin, the other is characterized by interdecadal fluctuations corresponding to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, a natural mode of variability.
Our results make it possible to quantitatively highlight the contribution of anthropogenic and natural factors to temperature extremes in all regions of the globe. These arguments can assist government policy makers in formulating adaptation strategies to the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme temperatures in a warming world.
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