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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-23 18:15 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2023 Meeting
Section: Atomic and Molecular Physics. Astrophysics. Applications
Title:
Special phenomena produced in the ascending phase of the solar cycle 25
Authors:
Cristian DANESCU, Liliana DUMITRU, Octavian BLAGOI
Affiliation:
Astronomical Institute of the Romanian Academy
E-mail
cristi.danescu@aira.astro.ro
Keywords:
solar cycle, sunspots, solar activity
Abstract:
The 25th solar cycle, which began in December 2019, has attracted considerable attention among scientists and researchers due to the more dynamic evolution than expected. This could lead to some major impact on various terrestrial systems. This dynamic, revealed by the number of sunspots and the magnitude of eruptive phenomena, shows an intensification of solar activity. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the predictions made for the 25th solar cycle and compare them to the actual situation as observed so far. By examining the solar cycle's characteristics, such as sunspot activity, solar flares, and geomagnetic disturbances, we evaluate the accuracy of early forecasts and identify any deviations from expectations. To accomplish this, we review and synthesize existing literature on solar cycle predictions, taking data from solar physicists, heliophysicists, and space weather experts. These predictions were based on historical patterns, statistical models, and advancements in solar observations. We present an analysis of the current situation in the 25th solar cycle, incorporating data from ground-based and space-based observations (some of them being obtained from the AIRA solar station) - such as sunspot records, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar radiation measurements. We analyze the methodologies employed and the factors considered by various research groups to assess the credibility of their forecasts. By comparing the observed solar activity to the predicted values, we evaluate the accuracy of the early forecasts and determine the extent to which they align with the actual situation. This kind of study is very useful because we can examines the implications of the 25th solar cycle on Earth's technological infrastructure.
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