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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-21 20:32 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2008 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
On the extended predictability of an Ensemble Numerical System
Authors:
Alina Enculescu, Mihaela Caian, Florinela Georgescu
Affiliation:
National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romania
E-mail
alina.enculescu@meteoromania.ro
Keywords:
regional climate,RegCM3model,predictability limits
Abstract:
The aim of this work is the identification of the competence of Regional Climatic Model RegCM3 (Giorgi et al. 1993) to represent regional climate on extended range, with emphasize on extreme events. Knowing theoretical limitations of longer-range predictability of dynamical chaotically systems, a first concern was to establish these limits (as a function of forecast range) for the discrete system. During last year, we have implemented in our country an ensemble prediction system for medium to seasonal forecast (10 days – 7 months).The most urgent requests nowadays is developing, implementation and application of an objective verification system for the performances of this ensemble numerical system over Romania. To emphasize the growth of RegCM3 anomalies versus climate and predictability limits we used spectral analyses. For the obtained spectral intervals, we present here two methods of verification, which we applied: deterministic verification – resulted from systematic calculations of forecast minus observations scores and from case studies; stochastic verification for ensemble solution.
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