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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2024-11-22 2:04 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2024 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Changes in the characteristics of tropical nights in Romania during the 21st Century
Authors:
Ioana Aurelia Dinu (1), Dragoș Ene (2), Anca Dumitru (1), Bogdan Antonescu (1,3)
Affiliation:
1) Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, 405 Atomistilor Street, 077125, Măgurele, Romania
2) ERATOSTHENES Centre of Excellence, Limassol, Cyprus
3) National Institute for Earth Physics, 12 Călugăreni Street, 077125, Măgurele, Romania
E-mail
antonescu.bogdan@gmail.com
Keywords:
temperature, tropical nights
Abstract:
High temperature events in summer such as extreme heat and tropical nights have a major impact on various sectors such as public health or energy. This study investigates the changes in the frequency of occurrence of tropical nights, defined as nights with minimum temperatures exceeding 20°C, in Romania. Utilising datasets from the Romanian National Meteorological Administration and EURO-CORDEX climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios., the research examines historical data from 1971-2000 and projects future conditions up to 2100. The research reveals a significant increase in the number of tropical nights, particularly in southern and southeastern Romania. Historical data shows a moderate increase, with the highest number of tropical nights along the Black Sea coast and the Danube Delta. Projections indicate that under the RCP4.5 scenario, the annual number of tropical nights will continue to rise throughout the 21st century, with some areas expected to experience over 35 tropical nights annually by the century's end. Under the more extreme RCP8.5 scenario, southern Romania and the Danube Delta could see over 40 tropical nights per year, with the Danube Delta experiencing up to 70 tropical nights annually. Results also highlight potential public health impacts, as increased tropical nights are associated with higher mortality rates due to heat stress. Urban areas, especially major cities like Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Iași, Constanța, and Timișoara, are projected to experience more frequently tropical nights, exacerbating health risks and increasing energy demands for cooling. The findings contribute to understanding regional climate impacts and provide a basis for informed policy-making in response to global warming.
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